Every official forecast the Office for Budget Responsibility has published for the main economic and fiscal variables, set beside the outturn for the same year. A forecast miss is a measurement of uncertainty at the time, not of conduct.
How the comparison is made
The OBR’s historical official forecasts database lists each forecast by the month it was published and the outturn as the OBR knew it at its latest forecast. For every year with an outturn, this page takes the most recent forecast made at least twelve months before the year ended (“a year ahead”) and the most recent made at least twenty-four months before (“two years ahead”). The miss is the outturn minus the year-ahead forecast: a positive miss means the outturn came in higher than forecast. Nothing is modelled or adjusted.
FORECAST MISSED is applied when the year-ahead forecast for a rate was more than one percentage point out, or for a cash amount more than ten per cent of the outturn out. The band is fixed and stated here so the label cannot drift. Forecasts before June 2010 were made by HM Treasury, not the OBR.
The economy
per cent. Over the 41 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 1.3 pts; the outturn came in above the forecast 20 times and below it 21.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| 2024 | 1.3% November 2022 | 0.7% November 2023 | 1.1% | +0.4 pts | |
| 2023 | 2.1% October 2021 | -1.4% November 2022 | 0.3% | +1.7 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2022 | 6.6% November 2020 | 6% October 2021 | 5.1% | −0.8 pts | |
| 2021 | 1.6% March 2019 | 5.5% November 2020 | 8.5% | +3 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2020 | 1.4% October 2018 | 1.4% March 2019 | -10% | −11.5 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2019 | 1.3% November 2017 | 1.6% October 2018 | 1.3% | −0.4 pts | |
| 2018 | 1.7% November 2016 | 1.4% November 2017 | 1.6% | +0.1 pts | |
| 2017 | 2.5% November 2015 | 1.4% November 2016 | 3% | +1.6 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2016 | 2.2% December 2014 | 2.4% November 2015 | 2.2% | −0.2 pts | |
| 2015 | 2.2% December 2013 | 2.4% December 2014 | 2.1% | −0.3 pts | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): 2025 1.4%; 2026 1.1%; 2027 1.6%; 2028 1.6%; 2029 1.5%; 2030 1.5%. These are estimates and are stored as such.
per cent. Over the 15 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 0.9 pts; the outturn came in above the forecast 8 times and below it 7.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| 2025 | 1.8% November 2023 | 2.6% October 2024 | 3.4% | +0.8 pts | |
| 2024 | 0.6% November 2022 | 3.6% November 2023 | 2.5% | −1.1 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2023 | 2.6% October 2021 | 7.4% November 2022 | 7.3% | −0.1 pts | |
| 2022 | 1.6% November 2020 | 4% October 2021 | 9.1% | +5.1 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2021 | 2% March 2019 | 1.2% November 2020 | 2.6% | +1.4 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2020 | 2% October 2018 | 1.9% March 2019 | 0.9% | −1 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2019 | 1.9% November 2017 | 2% October 2018 | 1.8% | −0.3 pts | |
| 2018 | 2.5% November 2016 | 2.4% November 2017 | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | |
| 2017 | 1.8% November 2015 | 2.3% November 2016 | 2.7% | +0.3 pts | |
| 2016 | 1.7% December 2014 | 1% November 2015 | 0.7% | −0.3 pts | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): 2026 2.3%; 2027 2%; 2028 2%; 2029 2%; 2030 2%. These are estimates and are stored as such.
per cent. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 0.6 pts; the outturn came in above the forecast 3 times and below it 11.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| 2024 | 4.9% November 2022 | 4.6% November 2023 | 4.3% | −0.3 pts | |
| 2023 | 4.3% October 2021 | 4.1% November 2022 | 4% | −0 pts | |
| 2022 | 6.5% November 2020 | 4.8% October 2021 | 3.8% | −1 pts | |
| 2021 | 4.1% March 2019 | 6.8% November 2020 | 4.5% | −2.3 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2020 | 3.8% October 2018 | 4.1% March 2019 | 4.6% | +0.5 pts | |
| 2019 | 4.4% November 2017 | 3.7% October 2018 | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | |
| 2018 | 5.5% November 2016 | 4.3% November 2017 | 4.1% | −0.2 pts | |
| 2017 | 5.2% November 2015 | 5.2% November 2016 | 4.4% | −0.8 pts | |
| 2016 | 5.2% December 2014 | 5.2% November 2015 | 4.9% | −0.3 pts | |
| 2015 | 7% December 2013 | 5.4% December 2014 | 5.4% | −0 pts | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): 2025 4.8%; 2026 5.3%; 2027 4.9%; 2028 4.4%; 2029 4.2%; 2030 4.1%. These are estimates and are stored as such.
people. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 402,866; the outturn came in above the forecast 13 times and below it 1.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| 2024 | 32,706,859 November 2022 | 32,915,487 November 2023 | 33,615,500 | +700,013 | |
| 2023 | 33,002,477 October 2021 | 32,765,312 November 2022 | 33,351,000 | +585,688 | |
| 2022 | 32,179,678 November 2020 | 32,587,143 October 2021 | 32,957,250 | +370,107 | |
| 2021 | 32,905,617 March 2019 | 31,934,776 November 2020 | 32,555,000 | +620,224 | |
| 2020 | 32,881,096 October 2018 | 32,737,971 March 2019 | 32,558,750 | −179,221 | |
| 2019 | 32,429,562 November 2017 | 32,713,513 October 2018 | 32,923,000 | +209,487 | |
| 2018 | 31,890,351 November 2016 | 32,295,883 November 2017 | 32,506,750 | +210,867 | |
| 2017 | 31,700,000 November 2015 | 31,838,235 November 2016 | 32,127,750 | +289,515 | |
| 2016 | 31,400,000 December 2014 | 31,500,000 November 2015 | 31,810,250 | +310,250 | |
| 2015 | 30,400,000 December 2013 | 31,200,000 December 2014 | 31,345,750 | +145,750 | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): 2025 34,160,402; 2026 34,224,822; 2027 34,457,556; 2028 34,766,580; 2029 35,023,485; 2030 35,246,197. These are estimates and are stored as such.
per cent. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 1.3 pts; the outturn came in above the forecast 8 times and below it 6.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| 2024 | 1.7% November 2022 | 3.7% November 2023 | 5.1% | +1.3 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2023 | 3% October 2021 | 4.2% November 2022 | 6.2% | +2 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2022 | 2% November 2020 | 3.9% October 2021 | 6.1% | +2.2 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2021 | 3.1% March 2019 | 2.1% November 2020 | 5% | +2.9 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2020 | 2.8% October 2018 | 3% March 2019 | -0.3% | −3.3 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2019 | 2.3% November 2017 | 2.5% October 2018 | 3% | +0.4 pts | |
| 2018 | 2.8% November 2016 | 2.3% November 2017 | 2.6% | +0.3 pts | |
| 2017 | 3.7% November 2015 | 2.4% November 2016 | 2.9% | +0.4 pts | |
| 2016 | 3.1% December 2014 | 3.4% November 2015 | 2.5% | −0.9 pts | |
| 2015 | 3.3% December 2013 | 2% December 2014 | 1.3% | −0.7 pts | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): 2025 5.3%; 2026 3.4%; 2027 2.4%; 2028 2.1%; 2029 2.2%; 2030 2.4%. These are estimates and are stored as such.
per cent. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 2.4 pts; the outturn came in above the forecast 10 times and below it 4.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| 2024 | 1.2% November 2022 | -0.9% November 2023 | 4.1% | +5 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2023 | 1.5% October 2021 | -3.4% November 2022 | 0.9% | +4.3 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2022 | 1.7% November 2020 | 0.3% October 2021 | -2.1% | −2.4 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2021 | 1.6% March 2019 | -0.7% November 2020 | 1.7% | +2.4 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2020 | 0.9% October 2018 | 1.1% March 2019 | -0.5% | −1.7 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2019 | 0.3% November 2017 | 0.6% October 2018 | 2.4% | +1.8 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2018 | 1% November 2016 | 0.8% November 2017 | 2% | +1.2 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2017 | 2.1% November 2015 | 0.1% November 2016 | 0.9% | +0.8 pts | |
| 2016 | 1.7% December 2014 | 2.5% November 2015 | 0.7% | −1.8 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2015 | 1.1% December 2013 | 1.9% December 2014 | 6% | +4.1 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
Latest forecast (March 2026): 2025 1.1%; 2026 0.6%; 2027 0.7%; 2028 0.8%; 2029 0.7%; 2030 0.9%. These are estimates and are stored as such.
per cent. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 2.8 pts; the outturn came in above the forecast 12 times and below it 2.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| 2024 | -5.7% November 2022 | -4.7% November 2023 | 0.7% | +5.4 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2023 | 0.9% October 2021 | -1.2% November 2022 | 0.4% | +1.6 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2022 | -2.6% November 2020 | 3.2% October 2021 | 9.3% | +6 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2021 | 3.7% March 2019 | -3.5% November 2020 | 8.2% | +11.7 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2020 | 3.1% October 2018 | 1.3% March 2019 | 2.8% | +1.5 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2019 | 2.9% November 2017 | 3.1% October 2018 | 1% | −2.1 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2018 | 4.1% November 2016 | 2.9% November 2017 | 3.2% | +0.3 pts | |
| 2017 | 4.7% November 2015 | 4% November 2016 | 4.5% | +0.6 pts | |
| 2016 | 5.9% December 2014 | 4.8% November 2015 | 7% | +2.2 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| 2015 | 7.2% December 2013 | 7.4% December 2014 | 6% | −1.4 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
Latest forecast (March 2026): 2025 2.8%; 2026 2.4%; 2027 2.9%; 2028 2.7%; 2029 2.6%; 2030 2.4%. These are estimates and are stored as such.
Borrowing and debt
per cent of GDP. Over the 46 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 1.5 pts; the outturn came in above the forecast 27 times and below it 19.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | 3.2% March 2023 | 3.1% March 2024 | 5.2% | +2.1 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2024 | 1.9% March 2022 | 5.1% March 2023 | 4.8% | −0.3 pts | |
| Year ending March 2023 | 4.5% March 2021 | 3.9% March 2022 | 4.8% | +0.9 pts | |
| Year ending March 2022 | 2.8% March 2020 | 10.3% March 2021 | 5% | −5.3 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2021 | 0.9% March 2019 | 2.4% March 2020 | 14.7% | +12.4 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2020 | 1.6% March 2018 | 1.3% March 2019 | 2.6% | +1.2 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2019 | 1.9% March 2017 | 1.8% March 2018 | 2% | +0.3 pts | |
| Year ending March 2018 | 1.9% March 2016 | 2.9% March 2017 | 2.8% | −0.1 pts | |
| Year ending March 2017 | 2% March 2015 | 2.9% March 2016 | 2.8% | −0 pts | |
| Year ending March 2016 | 3.8% March 2014 | 4% March 2015 | 4.2% | +0.2 pts | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 4.3%; Year ending March 2027 3.6%; Year ending March 2028 2.9%; Year ending March 2029 2.5%; Year ending March 2030 1.8%; Year ending March 2031 1.6%. These are estimates and are stored as such.
£ billion. Over the 51 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was £18.7bn; the outturn came in above the forecast 37 times and below it 14.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | £85.4bn March 2023 | £87.2bn March 2024 | £152.7bn | +£65.5bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2024 | £50.2bn March 2022 | £131.6bn March 2023 | £134.7bn | +£3.2bn | |
| Year ending March 2023 | £106.9bn March 2021 | £99.1bn March 2022 | £127.1bn | +£28bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2022 | £66.7bn March 2020 | £233.9bn March 2021 | £120.3bn | −£113.6bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2021 | £21.2bn March 2019 | £54.8bn March 2020 | £310.9bn | +£256.1bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2020 | £33.9bn March 2018 | £29.3bn March 2019 | £58.4bn | +£29bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2019 | £40.8bn March 2017 | £37.1bn March 2018 | £44.3bn | +£7.3bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2018 | £38.8bn March 2016 | £58.3bn March 2017 | £59.3bn | +£1bn | |
| Year ending March 2017 | £39.4bn March 2015 | £55.5bn March 2016 | £57.2bn | +£1.7bn | |
| Year ending March 2016 | £68.3bn March 2014 | £75.3bn March 2015 | £80.7bn | +£5.4bn | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 £132.7bn; Year ending March 2027 £115.5bn; Year ending March 2028 £96.5bn; Year ending March 2029 £86bn; Year ending March 2030 £63.4bn; Year ending March 2031 £59bn. These are estimates and are stored as such.
per cent of GDP. Over the 21 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was 5.9 pts; the outturn came in above the forecast 10 times and below it 11.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | 102.4% March 2023 | 98.8% March 2024 | 93.2% | −5.6 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2024 | 94.1% March 2022 | 103.1% March 2023 | 94.2% | −8.9 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2023 | 109% March 2021 | 95.5% March 2022 | 93.2% | −2.3 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2022 | 75% March 2020 | 107.4% March 2021 | 94.3% | −13 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2021 | 79% March 2019 | 77.4% March 2020 | 95.4% | +17.9 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2020 | 85.1% March 2018 | 82.2% March 2019 | 84.5% | +2.3 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2019 | 88.5% March 2017 | 85.5% March 2018 | 79.6% | −5.9 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2018 | 81.3% March 2016 | 88.8% March 2017 | 81.6% | −7.2 pts | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2017 | 79.8% March 2015 | 82.6% March 2016 | 82.7% | +0.1 pts | |
| Year ending March 2016 | 78.7% March 2014 | 80.2% March 2015 | 80.6% | +0.3 pts | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 94.3%; Year ending March 2027 94.8%; Year ending March 2028 95.7%; Year ending March 2029 96.3%; Year ending March 2030 96.1%; Year ending March 2031 95.1%. These are estimates and are stored as such.
Receipts
£ billion. Over the 35 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was £30.5bn; the outturn came in above the forecast 32 times and below it 3.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | £1.1tn March 2023 | £1.14tn March 2024 | £1.14tn | −£77.6m | |
| Year ending March 2024 | £1.05tn March 2022 | £1.06tn March 2023 | £1.1tn | +£38.4bn | |
| Year ending March 2023 | £885.4bn March 2021 | £987.5bn March 2022 | £1.03tn | +£46bn | |
| Year ending March 2022 | £910.8bn March 2020 | £819.3bn March 2021 | £920.6bn | +£101.3bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2021 | £844bn March 2019 | £872.9bn March 2020 | £791.9bn | −£81bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2020 | £800.1bn March 2018 | £811.4bn March 2019 | £826.5bn | +£15.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2019 | £776.4bn March 2017 | £775.8bn March 2018 | £811.7bn | +£35.9bn | |
| Year ending March 2018 | £745.8bn March 2016 | £744.2bn March 2017 | £779.4bn | +£35.3bn | |
| Year ending March 2017 | £700.9bn March 2015 | £716.5bn March 2016 | £754.2bn | +£37.8bn | |
| Year ending March 2016 | £675.4bn March 2014 | £667.4bn March 2015 | £713bn | +£45.6bn | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 £1.24tn; Year ending March 2027 £1.3tn; Year ending March 2028 £1.38tn; Year ending March 2029 £1.43tn; Year ending March 2030 £1.49tn; Year ending March 2031 £1.55tn. These are estimates and are stored as such.
£ billion. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was £6.5bn; the outturn came in above the forecast 7 times and below it 7.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | £282.2bn March 2023 | £302.7bn March 2024 | £305.9bn | +£3.2bn | |
| Year ending March 2024 | £256.6bn March 2022 | £268bn March 2023 | £277bn | +£9bn | |
| Year ending March 2023 | £208.7bn March 2021 | £245.5bn March 2022 | £252bn | +£6.5bn | |
| Year ending March 2022 | £217.4bn March 2020 | £198.2bn March 2021 | £224.8bn | +£26.6bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2021 | £208.1bn March 2019 | £207.5bn March 2020 | £195.3bn | −£12.3bn | |
| Year ending March 2020 | £195.2bn March 2018 | £195.7bn March 2019 | £192.5bn | −£3.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2019 | £183.1bn March 2017 | £188.5bn March 2018 | £192.5bn | +£4bn | |
| Year ending March 2018 | £186.6bn March 2016 | £174.1bn March 2017 | £180.6bn | +£6.5bn | |
| Year ending March 2017 | £182bn March 2015 | £182.1bn March 2016 | £177bn | −£5.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2016 | £176.8bn March 2014 | £170.5bn March 2015 | £168.9bn | −£1.6bn | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 £331.4bn; Year ending March 2027 £359.6bn; Year ending March 2028 £384.6bn; Year ending March 2029 £395.6bn; Year ending March 2030 £413.8bn; Year ending March 2031 £430.8bn. These are estimates and are stored as such.
£ billion. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was £2.7bn; the outturn came in above the forecast 11 times and below it 3.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | £176.4bn March 2023 | £168.1bn March 2024 | £171.4bn | +£3.3bn | |
| Year ending March 2024 | £162bn March 2022 | £172.3bn March 2023 | £179.1bn | +£6.7bn | |
| Year ending March 2023 | £152.6bn March 2021 | £179bn March 2022 | £179.4bn | +£404.8m | |
| Year ending March 2022 | £157bn March 2020 | £146.8bn March 2021 | £160.8bn | +£14.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2021 | £149.7bn March 2019 | £150.2bn March 2020 | £144.2bn | −£6bn | |
| Year ending March 2020 | £140.6bn March 2018 | £143.4bn March 2019 | £143.7bn | +£292.7m | |
| Year ending March 2019 | £134.5bn March 2017 | £136.5bn March 2018 | £137.5bn | +£941.6m | |
| Year ending March 2018 | £133.4bn March 2016 | £130.3bn March 2017 | £131.5bn | +£1.2bn | |
| Year ending March 2017 | £123.9bn March 2015 | £126.5bn March 2016 | £125.8bn | −£716m | |
| Year ending March 2016 | £115bn March 2014 | £113.2bn March 2015 | £114.1bn | +£861m | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 £204bn; Year ending March 2027 £211.6bn; Year ending March 2028 £218.9bn; Year ending March 2029 £226.5bn; Year ending March 2030 £237.6bn; Year ending March 2031 £245.8bn. These are estimates and are stored as such.
£ billion. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was £5bn; the outturn came in above the forecast 9 times and below it 5.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | £167.9bn March 2023 | £175.6bn March 2024 | £173.3bn | −£2.3bn | |
| Year ending March 2024 | £160bn March 2022 | £162.2bn March 2023 | £168.3bn | +£6.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2023 | £145.6bn March 2021 | £154.2bn March 2022 | £160.1bn | +£5.9bn | |
| Year ending March 2022 | £145.9bn March 2020 | £127.9bn March 2021 | £143.4bn | +£15.5bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2021 | £141.5bn March 2019 | £140.6bn March 2020 | £117.4bn | −£23.1bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2020 | £134.6bn March 2018 | £136.6bn March 2019 | £134.7bn | −£1.8bn | |
| Year ending March 2019 | £130.8bn March 2017 | £130.4bn March 2018 | £133.5bn | +£3.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2018 | £124.8bn March 2016 | £125.4bn March 2017 | £126.3bn | +£845.2m | |
| Year ending March 2017 | £117.7bn March 2015 | £120.1bn March 2016 | £122bn | +£1.9bn | |
| Year ending March 2016 | £115bn March 2014 | £114.3bn March 2015 | £116.2bn | +£1.9bn | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 £180.9bn; Year ending March 2027 £188.7bn; Year ending March 2028 £197.8bn; Year ending March 2029 £205.8bn; Year ending March 2030 £214.7bn; Year ending March 2031 £223.8bn. These are estimates and are stored as such.
Spending
£ billion. Over the 35 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was £41.7bn; the outturn came in above the forecast 34 times and below it 1.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | £1.19tn March 2023 | £1.23tn March 2024 | £1.29tn | +£65.4bn | |
| Year ending March 2024 | £1.1tn March 2022 | £1.19tn March 2023 | £1.23tn | +£41.6bn | |
| Year ending March 2023 | £992.3bn March 2021 | £1.09tn March 2022 | £1.16tn | +£74bn | |
| Year ending March 2022 | £977.4bn March 2020 | £1.05tn March 2021 | £1.04tn | −£12.4bn | |
| Year ending March 2021 | £865.2bn March 2019 | £927.7bn March 2020 | £1.1tn | +£175.2bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2020 | £834bn March 2018 | £840.7bn March 2019 | £884.9bn | +£44.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2019 | £817.2bn March 2017 | £812.9bn March 2018 | £856bn | +£43.2bn | |
| Year ending March 2018 | £784.6bn March 2016 | £802.4bn March 2017 | £838.7bn | +£36.3bn | |
| Year ending March 2017 | £740.3bn March 2015 | £771.9bn March 2016 | £811.4bn | +£39.5bn | |
| Year ending March 2016 | £743.6bn March 2014 | £742.6bn March 2015 | £793.7bn | +£51.1bn | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 £1.37tn; Year ending March 2027 £1.42tn; Year ending March 2028 £1.47tn; Year ending March 2029 £1.51tn; Year ending March 2030 £1.56tn; Year ending March 2031 £1.61tn. These are estimates and are stored as such.
£ billion. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was £3.5bn; the outturn came in above the forecast 6 times and below it 8.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | £307bn March 2023 | £315.1bn March 2024 | £314.8bn | −£381.6m | |
| Year ending March 2024 | £270.8bn March 2022 | £294.5bn March 2023 | £296.4bn | +£1.8bn | |
| Year ending March 2023 | £254.9bn March 2021 | £250.3bn March 2022 | £261.5bn | +£11.2bn | |
| Year ending March 2022 | £237.8bn March 2020 | £249.1bn March 2021 | £244.3bn | −£4.8bn | |
| Year ending March 2021 | £232.2bn March 2019 | £231.2bn March 2020 | £245.4bn | +£14.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2020 | £228.4bn March 2018 | £227.3bn March 2019 | £227bn | −£317.4m | |
| Year ending March 2019 | £224.4bn March 2017 | £224.5bn March 2018 | £222.5bn | −£2bn | |
| Year ending March 2018 | £219.2bn March 2016 | £221.1bn March 2017 | £218.8bn | −£2.3bn | |
| Year ending March 2017 | £219.5bn March 2015 | £218.3bn March 2016 | £216.7bn | −£1.6bn | |
| Year ending March 2016 | £218.3bn March 2014 | £216.9bn March 2015 | £216.3bn | −£546.6m | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 £332.9bn; Year ending March 2027 £352.8bn; Year ending March 2028 £363.1bn; Year ending March 2029 £373.8bn; Year ending March 2030 £389.9bn; Year ending March 2031 £406.9bn. These are estimates and are stored as such.
£ billion. Over the 14 years with a year-ahead forecast, the average miss was £6.7bn; the outturn came in above the forecast 10 times and below it 4.
| Year | Two years ahead | A year ahead | Outturn | Miss | |
|---|
| Year ending March 2025 | £66.6bn March 2023 | £73.5bn March 2024 | £85.4bn | +£11.9bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2024 | £51.5bn March 2022 | £76.9bn March 2023 | £83.2bn | +£6.3bn | |
| Year ending March 2023 | £41.1bn March 2021 | £87.2bn March 2022 | £108.1bn | +£20.9bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2022 | £47.6bn March 2020 | £42.6bn March 2021 | £70.9bn | +£28.3bn | FORECAST MISSED |
| Year ending March 2021 | £48.7bn March 2019 | £44.7bn March 2020 | £41bn | −£3.7bn | |
| Year ending March 2020 | £52bn March 2018 | £51.1bn March 2019 | £50.3bn | −£817.7m | |
| Year ending March 2019 | £52.3bn March 2017 | £53.3bn March 2018 | £50.1bn | −£3.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2018 | £51bn March 2016 | £55.8bn March 2017 | £56.2bn | +£382.5m | |
| Year ending March 2017 | £50.7bn March 2015 | £47.8bn March 2016 | £49.9bn | +£2.1bn | |
| Year ending March 2016 | £59.1bn March 2014 | £46bn March 2015 | £46.4bn | +£327.5m | |
Latest forecast (March 2026): Year ending March 2026 £98.5bn; Year ending March 2027 £103.4bn; Year ending March 2028 £111.4bn; Year ending March 2029 £120.9bn; Year ending March 2030 £129.9bn; Year ending March 2031 £133.4bn. These are estimates and are stored as such.