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OBR · Historical official forecasts database

Unemployment forecasts

2024 Final

4.3%

Unemployment forecasts was 4.3% in 2024, up 0.3 percentage points from 4% in 2023.

▲ +0.3 percentage points against 2023 (previous period)

  1. OBR rate
  2. 2024
  3. published 26 March 2026
  4. Unemplrate
  5. row “Outturn data*”
  6. column “2024”
  7. cell value 4.2980101725

The series is rising. Rule: up 6.2% from 2023 to 2024.

2009 to 2024

Unemployment forecasts: 2009 to 2024LabourCoalitionCoalitionConservativeConservativeConservativeConservativeConservativeLabour0%2.5%5%7.5%2010201520202009: 7.6% per cent · published 26 March 20262010: 7.9% per cent · published 26 March 20262011: 8.1% per cent · published 26 March 20262012: 8% per cent · published 26 March 20262013: 7.6% per cent · published 26 March 20262014: 6.2% per cent · published 26 March 20262015: 5.4% per cent · published 26 March 20262016: 4.9% per cent · published 26 March 20262017: 4.4% per cent · published 26 March 20262018: 4.1% per cent · published 26 March 20262019: 3.8% per cent · published 26 March 20262020: 4.6% per cent · published 26 March 20262021: 4.5% per cent · published 26 March 20262022: 3.8% per cent · published 26 March 20262023: 4% per cent · published 26 March 20262024: 4.3% per cent · published 26 March 2026
Published valueProvisional or revisedLatestShaded bands: governments (see labels)Hover or use arrow keys to read a value

What this measures

The ILO unemployment rate averaged over each calendar year: the outturn as the OBR last knew it, with every official forecast for the same year.

What this doesn’t measure

The claimant count, economic inactivity, or the number of people unemployed.

Important caveat

Each forecast vintage uses the definitions and classifications in force when it was made, so the outturn the OBR shows beside it may differ from today's ONS series after later classification changes and revisions. The outturn row is the figure as the OBR knew it at its most recent forecast, not the latest ONS estimate. Forecasts before June 2010 were produced by HM Treasury, not the OBR. Fiscal series are financial years; economy series are calendar years. A forecast is a statement of uncertainty made at the time and is stored as an estimate; a miss is not evidence of misconduct.

Revision history

No period of this series has been revised since it was first ingested here. Revisions are recorded automatically when a later release publishes a different figure for the same period.

Source

Publisher
OBR
Publication
Historical official forecasts database
Release
Historical official forecasts database, March 2026, published 26 March 2026
Source file
obr-historical-forecasts-2026-03.xlsx
File SHA-256
e00b17cb7ec8dfddc4bfd4d212c1e93362147fff81d74a10480e599b26e634db
Retrieved
3 September 2026
Sheet
Unemplrate
Table
Unemplrate
Row
Outturn data*
Column
2024
Cell value
4.2980101725
Geography
United Kingdom
Unit
per cent
API
/api/metrics/obr_forecast_unemployment_rate · /series · /vintages

Government periods

Change during each government, from the level inherited to the last complete period before it left office. Describes the period; does not attribute cause.

Conservative 2019–20244.1%20184%2023↓ 0.9%
Conservative 2017–20194.9%20164.1%2018↓ 16.4%
Conservative 2015–20176.2%20144.9%2016↓ 20.8%
Coalition 2010–20157.6%20096.2%2014↓ 19.0%

Full comparison with chart

Release
Historical official forecasts database, March 2026 · publication page
Last updated
26 March 2026
Next release expected
Not yet announced (estimated from the usual cadence)