13 December 2019 – 5 July 2024
Public finances during the Conservative 2019–2024 government
Summary
| Metric | Level when government took office | Latest | Change during government |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borrowing forecasts, per cent of GDPOBR · per cent of GDP | 2%Year ending March 2019 | 4.8%Year ending March 2024 | ↑ 138.7%+2.8% · 5 periods |
| Borrowing forecasts, £ billionOBR · £ billion | £44.3bnYear ending March 2019 | £134.7bnYear ending March 2024 | ↑ 204.1%+£90.4bn · 5 periods |
| Debt forecasts, per cent of GDPOBR · per cent of GDP | 79.6%Year ending March 2019 | 94.2%Year ending March 2024 | ↑ 18.3%+14.6% · 5 periods |
| Spending forecasts, £ billionOBR · £ billion | £856bnYear ending March 2019 | £1.23tnYear ending March 2024 | ↑ 43.8%+£374.7bn · 5 periods |
| Receipts forecasts, £ billionOBR · £ billion | £811.7bnYear ending March 2019 | £1.1tnYear ending March 2024 | ↑ 35.0%+£284.3bn · 5 periods |
| GDP growth forecastsOBR · per cent | 1.6%2018 | 0.3%2023 | ↓ 82.5%−1.3% · 5 periods |
| Inflation forecastsOBR · per cent | 2.5%2018 | 7.3%2023 | ↑ 194.7%+4.8% · 5 periods |
| Unemployment forecastsOBR · per cent | 4.1%2018 | 4%2023 | ↓ 0.9%−0% · 5 periods |
| Employment forecastsOBR · people | 32,506,7502018 | 33,351,0002023 | ↑ 2.6%+844,250 · 5 periods |
| Earnings growth forecastsOBR · per cent | 2.6%2018 | 6.2%2023 | ↑ 140.1%+3.6% · 5 periods |
| House price forecastsOBR · per cent | 3.2%2018 | 0.4%2023 | ↓ 88.9%−2.9% · 5 periods |
| Household income forecastsOBR · per cent | 2%2018 | 0.9%2023 | ↓ 55.8%−1.1% · 5 periods |
| Income tax forecastsOBR · £ billion | £192.5bnYear ending March 2019 | £277bnYear ending March 2024 | ↑ 43.9%+£84.5bn · 5 periods |
| National Insurance forecastsOBR · £ billion | £137.5bnYear ending March 2019 | £179.1bnYear ending March 2024 | ↑ 30.3%+£41.6bn · 5 periods |
| VAT forecastsOBR · £ billion | £133.5bnYear ending March 2019 | £168.3bnYear ending March 2024 | ↑ 26.1%+£34.8bn · 5 periods |
| Welfare spending forecastsOBR · £ billion | £222.5bnYear ending March 2019 | £296.4bnYear ending March 2024 | ↑ 33.2%+£73.9bn · 5 periods |
| Debt interest forecastsOBR · £ billion | £50.1bnYear ending March 2019 | £83.2bnYear ending March 2024 | ↑ 66.0%+£33.1bn · 5 periods |
| Public sector receipts since 1900, per cent of GDPOBR · per cent of GDP | 37.1%Year ending March 2019 | 39.3%Year ending March 2024 | ↑ 6.0%+2.2% · 5 periods |
| Public spending since 1900, per cent of GDPOBR · per cent of GDP | 39.1%Year ending March 2019 | 44.1%Year ending March 2024 | ↑ 12.9%+5% · 5 periods |
| Borrowing since 1900, per cent of GDPOBR · per cent of GDP | 2%Year ending March 2019 | 4.8%Year ending March 2024 | ↑ 139.2%+2.8% · 5 periods |
| National debt since 1900, per cent of GDPOBR · per cent of GDP | 79.6%Year ending March 2019 | 94.2%Year ending March 2024 | ↑ 18.3%+14.6% · 5 periods |
| Public sector net borrowingONS · £ million | -£5.5bnNovember 2019 | -£14.6bnJune 2024 | ↓ 168.0%−£9.2bn · 55 periods |
| Public sector net debtONS · £ billion | £1.83tnNovember 2019 | £2.73tnJune 2024 | ↑ 49.4%+£902.8bn · 55 periods |
| Public sector net debt as a share of GDPONS · percent | 82.8%November 2019 | 94.5%June 2024 | ↑ 14.1%+11.7% · 55 periods |
| Debt interest paidONS · £ million | £2.7bnNovember 2019 | £11.7bnJune 2024 | ↑ 331.0%+£9bn · 55 periods |
Borrowing forecasts, per cent of GDP
Inherited Year ending March 2019: 2% per cent of GDP. Latest Year ending March 2024: 4.8%.
Borrowing forecasts, £ billion
Inherited Year ending March 2019: £44.3bn £ billion. Latest Year ending March 2024: £134.7bn.
Debt forecasts, per cent of GDP
Inherited Year ending March 2019: 79.6% per cent of GDP. Latest Year ending March 2024: 94.2%.
Spending forecasts, £ billion
Inherited Year ending March 2019: £856bn £ billion. Latest Year ending March 2024: £1.23tn.
Receipts forecasts, £ billion
Inherited Year ending March 2019: £811.7bn £ billion. Latest Year ending March 2024: £1.1tn.
GDP growth forecasts
Inherited 2018: 1.6% per cent. Latest 2023: 0.3%.
Inflation forecasts
Inherited 2018: 2.5% per cent. Latest 2023: 7.3%.
Unemployment forecasts
Inherited 2018: 4.1% per cent. Latest 2023: 4%.
Employment forecasts
Inherited 2018: 32,506,750 people. Latest 2023: 33,351,000.
Earnings growth forecasts
Inherited 2018: 2.6% per cent. Latest 2023: 6.2%.
House price forecasts
Inherited 2018: 3.2% per cent. Latest 2023: 0.4%.
Household income forecasts
Inherited 2018: 2% per cent. Latest 2023: 0.9%.
Income tax forecasts
Inherited Year ending March 2019: £192.5bn £ billion. Latest Year ending March 2024: £277bn.
National Insurance forecasts
Inherited Year ending March 2019: £137.5bn £ billion. Latest Year ending March 2024: £179.1bn.
VAT forecasts
Inherited Year ending March 2019: £133.5bn £ billion. Latest Year ending March 2024: £168.3bn.
Welfare spending forecasts
Inherited Year ending March 2019: £222.5bn £ billion. Latest Year ending March 2024: £296.4bn.
Debt interest forecasts
Inherited Year ending March 2019: £50.1bn £ billion. Latest Year ending March 2024: £83.2bn.
Public sector receipts since 1900, per cent of GDP
Inherited Year ending March 2019: 37.1% per cent of GDP. Latest Year ending March 2024: 39.3%.
Public spending since 1900, per cent of GDP
Inherited Year ending March 2019: 39.1% per cent of GDP. Latest Year ending March 2024: 44.1%.
Borrowing since 1900, per cent of GDP
Inherited Year ending March 2019: 2% per cent of GDP. Latest Year ending March 2024: 4.8%.
National debt since 1900, per cent of GDP
Inherited Year ending March 2019: 79.6% per cent of GDP. Latest Year ending March 2024: 94.2%.
Public sector net borrowing
Inherited November 2019: -£5.5bn £ million. Latest June 2024: -£14.6bn.
Public sector net debt
Inherited November 2019: £1.83tn £ billion. Latest June 2024: £2.73tn.
Public sector net debt as a share of GDP
Inherited November 2019: 82.8% percent. Latest June 2024: 94.5%.
Debt interest paid
Inherited November 2019: £2.7bn £ million. Latest June 2024: £11.7bn.